Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Labour Take The Lead: Significant Poll Shift After Chequers Agreement

The political context appears to have changed since the Prime Minister's Chequers proposal on Brexit was approved by the cabinet. There were two cabinet minister resignations on Monday 9th July 2018 over the proposal. The opinion polling that has taken place since those resignations reveals a significant shift in party support.

In three polls conducted since the 10th July Conservative support has fallen and UKIP support risen, resulting in a Labour lead.

An Opinum poll for the Observer has figures of CON 36%(-6), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 8%(+5). A Labour lead of 4%.

A Deltapoll survey for the Sun on Sunday has the Conservatives on 37%(-4) and Labour on 42%(+1). A Labour lead of 5%.

The regular YouGov poll for the Times this week shows another Labour lead of 5%. The figures are  CON 36%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1).

This is a significant shift. The majority of polls conducted in the last 3 months have had the Conservatives in front.

It does appear that many leavers are unhappy with the Chequers proposal, and subsequent White Paper, and are shifting their allegiance to UKIP, in the polls at least.

Given 70% of Conservative voters were leave supporters this could be significant and underlines the fears of Conservative MPs. According to Fullfact, while the EU referendum votes were not counted by constituency, it is estimated that 70% of Conservative constituencies and 60% of Labour constituencies voted Leave in the EU referendum.