Thursday, June 08, 2017

YouGov Change Tack and Now Say Conservatives Will Increase Majority

Throughout recent weeks YouGov polling for the Times has been showing strong Labour support which will lead to a hung parliament. This forecast has been widely ridiculed but given the Times great headlines. Now on the very eve of the election they are furiously backpedalling.

Their latest poll reduces Labour support by 3%. YouGov now forecast the Tories leading by 7% and increasing their majority. This is quite a turnaround.

To be fair YouGov have been using a new election model which forecasts a hung parliament but now they are trying to have their cake and eat it. They are saying we might get a hung parliament based on our new model but we think we will actually get an increased Conservative majority based on our traditional polling method.

I have no problems with them trying new methods and being clear it is experimental but, and this is a big but... they have deliberately been providing the Times with national headlines of a hung parliament and a Labour surge.

There is something very wrong here, they have been shaping the election narrative and providing the Times with great headlines. Now they say: well we have two models and we think the hung parliament model is less likely to be right. They were not saying this before.