Thursday, June 08, 2017

Final Seat Projection Has Some Surprises

Ok, I know I said yesterday's seat forecasts were final but I didn't include the University of East Anglia's Election Forecast. So for completeness here it is. These are very much in line with the seat predictions of Lord Ashcroft and Electoral Calculus.

The forecast includes some surprises when you look at individual seats. For example, they see Labour gaining Sheffield Hallam from Nick Clegg and Brighton Pavilion from Caroline Lucas, albeit by a whisker.

I am personally expecting Caroline to hold on in my own constituency of Brighton Pavilion but it will be interesting to see how close Labour are, given they have really put all their efforts into neighbouring Kemptown and Hove. UEA also have Labour gaining Kemptown. The full list of projected Labour gains are here.