Sunday, May 28, 2017

Latest Electoral Calculus Projection Has Conservative Majority of 116

There were five opinion polls published this weekend. All five have Conservative support between 43 and 46 per cent. Labour may be doing better but as we can see from the Electoral Calculus projections above Theresa May is still on course for a substantial majority on current poll projections.

The five latest polls from this weekend are:

ICM:         CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1)
ComRes:   CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc)
Opinium:  CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc)
ORB:        CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2)
YouGov:   CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc)

It was a YouGov poll that caused excitement this week showing Labour just 5% behind the Conservatives. This has widened to 7% and across all polls there is still a solid Conservative lead at this time.

What is most striking is the poor performance of the Lib Dems, this is a party that achieved 22%of the vote in 2005. The current projections have them losing all but two of their seats. I personally expect incumbency and local factors to help them achieve more seats but the euphoria of their Richmond by-election win has quickly dissipated. Farron's focus on the Brexit 48% remain voters appears increasingly like a major mistake.