Saturday, April 29, 2017

Why The 48% May Help The Conservatives Win

There is a view that the 48% that voted to Remain in the EU may switch to a progressive alliance to stop Theresa May. The reality appears to be the reverse. 

The latest data from Electoral Calculus and the Guardian suggests that the majority of Conservative Remain voters will not defect from the party. In fact the forecast is more UKIP and Labour Remain voters will switch to the Tories than the number of Conservative Remain voters that will switch away. The chart above forecasts what will happen based on 100 perfectly representative Remain voters. 

Thus the data suggests the Conservatives will actually gain from Remain voters switching parties.

When it comes to Leave voters the Conservatives stand to gain significantly as Labour and UKIP Leave voters switch to the Conservatives, which we can see in the chart below of 100 representative Leave voters.

This explains why in the latest Electoral Calculus projections the Lib Dems fail to make any significant headway despite tactical voting and a progressive alliance