Saturday, May 06, 2017

UK Local Election Results

The local election results yesterday show the Conservatives gaining at the expense of UKIP and Labour. UKIP lost every seat they were defending and this looks like the endgame for the party.

The national vote share from the elections shows the Conservatives with a smaller lead than the polls are suggesting and also show the Liberal Democrats as having higher support than the polls suggest despite losing seats. The figures are:

Conservatives    38%
Labour              27%
Lib Dems           18%
UKIP                   5%

This would still point a Conservative majority of up to 100 seats but not the landslide that the polls are predicting.

The big note of caution is that people vote differently in local elections than general elections. Also on the last two occasions when local elections last took place in a general election period the Conservative share of the local election votes were lower than the vote share they achieved in the general election in a few weeks later.