Saturday, May 13, 2017

Macron's Challenge


Macron needs to translate his success in the Presidential election to the upcoming National Assembly elections.

Many have hailed his election as a renewal of French politics. However, the data above from Ipsos shows that 43% of those that voted Macron were doing so to keep Le Pen out, as opposed to the 33% of his voters that were voting for political renewal.

In itself this may seem understandable but the scale of his challenge is underlined when we look at what this means in national votes. The left hand chart below shows the votes in the second round of the election in millions.


The right hand chart shows how the Macron vote was split between those voting to keep Le Pen out and those voting for Macron.

Of course the National Assembly elections are quite different and France has a history of giving the new President a working majority in the Assembly. However, it does show the scale of Macron's challenge in winning a majority in the Assembly in June.