Tuesday, May 02, 2017

French Election Poll Tracker

The latest poll tracker from the BBC shows Macron still well ahead but worryingly Le Pen has improved since the first round against Macron.

However, it is very different to Brexit and Trump. What was surprising about Brexit was the level of surprise, as most online polls actually had Leave ahead albeit marginally. In Trump's case the polling had Hilary's national lead correct but it was always close in the swing states.

In this case Macron's lead is so substantial he is very likely to win. The French polls were very accurate in the first round and while there is less certainty in the second round due to the level of abstentions, it is highly unlikely the polls have this wrong.