Monday, May 01, 2017

Electoral Calculus Projection - April 30th

The latest forecast from Electoral Calculus based on opinion polls from 19 to 28 April gives the Conservatives a majority of 162. This is 16 down from the prediction a week earlier.

It will be interested to see if the various tactical voting initiatives will have much impact on the numbers. The Greens have stepped aside in Brighton Kempton and Ealing to help Labour, and the Liberals have stepped down in Brighton Pavilion to help the Greens. There is an ongoing argument that Labour should also step down in Brighton Pavilion which would be surprising as it was previously a Labour seat.

As we reported on Saturday a progressive alliance based on the 48% that voted Remain may make little headway as research shows that the Conservatives are most likely to gain from Remain voters switching parties.